TDP MPs into BJP — Political Blunder or Master Stroke?
Today 4 Rajya Sabha MPs from TDP party formally joined BJP party. 2 of them were bitter critics of Modi until 2019 elections and staunch loyalists of CBN.
Few months ago, CBN as AP CM declined permission to CBI who want to investigate into financial frauds of companies led by Sujana Chowdary and CM Ramesh. Both these MPs are believed to be among top financial backbones of TDP.
TDP now claims that these MPs joined BJP to save themselves from various cases against them. MPs claim that they joined BJP for the benefit of their constituencies. BJP claims that leaders from various parties are being attracted to their party because of Modi’s leadership!
All 3 sides owe a better explanation than these template statements. All 3 sides contradicted their statements and actions they did only few weeks ago!
Winners Vs Losers
BJP got less than 1% vote share in both Assembly and Lok Sabha 2019 elections in AP. This is in comparison to 50% vote share it got in several other states. BJP has nothing further to loose from 1% in AP. At National level, BJP until now was able to maintain a non-corrupt party image. Now, they cannot aggressively go against financial fraudsters by housing such MPs. This move will haunt BJP even after 5 years, the same way the 23 Yscrp MLA defection still haunts Naidu even today.
TDP too on the other hand would not loose any vote share since none of the 4 MPs had the capacity to attract votes. TDP may only loose the financial support they may have had earlier from these MPs.
BJP may want these MPs to turn “approvers” so that they may corner Naidu and emerge as an alternative to Yscrp in AP. But CBN is an expert in Covert Operations. He successfully planted Kesineni Nani into Chiru Party in 2008 and made him the torch bearer for the famous ticket selling stories in PRP party.
BJP may have taken a calculated risk by allowing these MPs into their fold but it can prove costly if these MPs turn out to be coverts planted by Naidu. Sujana Chowdary said that although he joined BJP, his wish would be for TDP to strengthen in future!
The suspicion of these MPs being coverts gains further weight as CBN left country while this drama unfolded. People would question how CBN allowed this defection. So his “abroad” tour maybe planned in advance to serve as an excuse that CBN is not aware of this development!
Number crunching
Rajya Sabha has 245 seats out of which NDA has 112 and UPA 63, Others 70 ( http://164.100.47.5/NewMembers/partystrength.aspx) . NDA would get majority by end of 2020 as some of the opposition MPs term would expire by then. With these 4 MPs, NDA still falls short of majority. So, BJP may not immediately gain any benefit from passing bills in Rajya Sabha. BJP may not want to wait until 2020 and so it may be already in the look out for other MPs to join them.
Conclusion
Today’s move has more risk for BJP than TDP. If it backfires (by these defected MPs creating mischief at national level), BJP’s image would be dented. It may not loose any further votes in AP but its desire to gain strength in AP would fail.
If not, with no financial backing there will be more defections in TDP at all levels of leadership and it may be reduced to a smaller player in regional politics. This can in turn help BJP to gain strength in AP.
As of now, today’s news has disappointed both BJP and TDP supporters alike!
